Stripes & Willows Christmas Cookie Inflation Index (2019–2025)

If you’ve ever stood in the eggs aisle in December getting your Christmas meal prep shop done and thought “Why… on Gods green Earth are eggs so expensive?” then you are in good company friend.

This year, instead of just complaining to my husband in the middle of the grocery store, I decided to actually measure it. Cause you know ya girl (previously a analytics specialist) LOVES a data Christmas themed chart.

This is my data‑driven (ish) look at how much it really costs to bake a classic batch of Christmas cookies now, compared with the pre‑pandemic days (oh fun times).

Scroll down to find:

• an interactive chart showing ingredient prices over time (in Christmas themed color palette, you’re welcome)

• our estimated cost per batch and cost per cookie per year from 2019 - 2025

• and, because this is Stripes & Willows, some very practical ways to bake smart without killing the holiday mood.

What is the Christmas Cookie Inflation Index?

Stripes & Willows Christmas Cookie Inflation Index (CCII) is my very nerdy, very festive attempt to answer one question:

“How much more does it cost to bake a batch of Christmas cookies in 2025? is it expensive? have I lost my mind? is there going to be a Home Alone 3 (original cast only) ”

To do that, I built a simple “cookie basket” using ingredients most of us buy every December:

• Butter

• Eggs

• All‑purpose flour

• Granulated sugar

• Brown sugar

• Chocolate chips

• Vanilla extract (if you know why this is the most expensive ingredient on the list, please leave a comment for us all to learn)

Then I looked at how the average U.S. price of each of those ingredients changed between 2019 and 2025, and calculated:

• The cost of a standard batch of cookies (about 24 cookies)

• The cost per cookie in each year

This is not an official government index (obviously but I’ve been told I need to say this); it’s a home‑baker’s view on inflation. It won’t match every single store or brand, but it gives us a rough sense of how much more our seasonal baking actually costs have changed.

Tip: On the chart, hover over each year to see the exact price of each ingredient.

The Christmas Cookie Inflation Index (2019–2025)

Prices are based on publicly available averages and estimates. Actual costs may vary by location and season.

How Christmas cookie ingredients have changed since 2019

Let’s walk through the main characters in this little drama.

Eggs: the chaos king

Eggs are the wild child here. A dozen eggs in 2019 was almost an afterthought; by 2022–2023, egg prices spiked dramatically thanks to supply issues and disease in poultry flocks. Prices have eased from the very peak, but they’re still significantly higher than the pre‑pandemic years.

If your favorite Christmas cookie recipe uses 3–4 eggs, I ask you this 1. do you feel the pinch in your purse? 2. do your cookies taste eggy? Cause that is a lot of eggs.

Butter: the steady climber

Butter prices were already creeping up before 2020, but they’ve climbed noticeably since. In our index, a pound of butter is now roughly a dollar more than it was in 2019, with a big jump post‑2021. You feel that every time a recipe calls for “2 sticks.”

Flour: quietly more expensive

Flour is still relatively cheap compared with dairy, but it’s crept up too. Between 2019 and the mid‑2020s, the average price per pound rose noticeably. The good news: even after the increase, flour stays one of the more budget‑friendly parts of the cookie equation.

Sugar & Brown Sugar: the sweet stuff isn’t cheap

Sugar is all the rage, didn’t you know? The average price per pound of granulated sugar is much higher now than in 2019, and brown sugar tends to track right along with it. When you’re adding cups of sugar to multiple batches of cookies, that adds up quickly.

Chocolate chips & vanilla: the luxury items aka rich folk ingredients

Chocolate chips and vanilla have always been the “splurge” ingredients, and they’re still doing the heavy lifting in your total. Cocoa prices and vanilla bean supply issues have made both more expensive than a few years ago. That bag of chips and bottle of vanilla are quietly nudging your per‑batch cost up.

Cost per batch and cost per Christmas cookie in 2025

Using our standard “Stripes & Willows cookie” recipe (a pretty classic soft sugar‑cookie base with brown sugar and chocolate, making around 24 cookies), we estimated:

• In 2019, the ingredient cost for one batch was around $11

• By 2022–2023, that had climbed to roughly $14–$15.50

• In 2025, a comparable batch lands somewhere in the $16-ish range, depending on exactly where you shop and what brands you buy

That works out to an increase of roughly 40–50% over six years, and a per‑cookie cost that has gone from under 50¢ to somewhere closer to the 60–70¢ per cookie mark for homemade.

Important to note:

• This is ingredients only — not your time, electricity, or the emotional labor of decorating 24 tiny snowmen just so.

• It assumes you’re buying typical sizes (5 lb flour, 4 lb sugar, 1 lb butter, 1 dozen eggs, etc.), and using a reasonable portion in each batch.

Still: for something as iconic and comforting as a Christmas cookie, that’s a meaningful jump.

What holiday baking inflation actually means in a real kitchen

Inflation is abstract; standing in front of your pantry at 10pm on December 22nd is not.

A few ways this plays out in real life:

• Fewer varieties, bigger batches. Instead of six different cookie recipes, many bakers are focusing on 1–3 “hero” cookies and making more of them.

• More “bring a plate” and “everyone pitches in.” Hosts are more likely to ask guests to bring dessert, share the baking, or crowdsource ingredients. I’ve even seen surveys where a noticeable chunk of hosts are now asking guests to chip in with money or a dish, which makes total sense when you look at ingredient prices.

• More strategic splurging. People will spring for the “good butter” or real vanilla for one special cookie, and use more budget‑friendly ingredients for the supporting cast.

None of that has to be a bad thing. In some ways, it pushes us to be more intentional about what we bake, how much, and why.

How to bake smart on a 2025 budget (without losing the magic)

Inflation doesn’t have to steal the joy out of your holiday baking. It just means we’re a bit more strategic.

Here are some gentle, practical shifts you can make:

1. Choose your “hero” cookie

Pick one or two signature Christmas cookies that feel special and focus your premium ingredients there (good butter, real vanilla, maybe fancy chocolate).

Then fill out your tins with simpler, lower‑cost bakes:

• shortbread

• spice cookies

• sugar‑coated butter cookies

• bar cookies you can slice instead of individually rolling

2. Smart Swaps

A few budget‑friendly ideas:

• Use oil‑based doughs for some recipes to reduce butter use

• Lean into spices and citrus zest for flavor, instead of more chocolate

• Use a mix of chocolate chips + chopped nuts or dried fruit, so you’re not relying solely on cocoa‑heavy ingredients

You still get something that feels special—just with fewer dollars melted into it.

3. Shop like a baker, not like a panicked person

• Buy butter, sugar, and flour on sale early in the season and freeze what you can.

• Watch for store‑brand staples that are nearly identical to name brands in baking. I haven’t checked but I would be interested to know how many name brand products come out of the same factories of store-brands.

• If you’re baking with friends or family, consider splitting big bags of flour, sugar, or chocolate chips. Costco people. Costco.

4. Scale the batch, not the joy

If the idea of spending $16+ on one batch feels ick, you can:

• Bake half‑batches for recipes that handle it well

• Focus on one cookie + a simple non‑baked treat (like dipped pretzels or chocolate bark)

You still get that holiday ritual, just with less pressure.

How we built the Stripes & Willows Christmas Cookie Inflation Index

For the data nerds (hi, you’re my people), here’s how the index actually works.

• Timeframe: 2019–2025

• Scope: U.S. prices for common home baking ingredients

• Ingredients tracked: butter, eggs, all‑purpose flour, granulated sugar, brown sugar, chocolate chips, vanilla extract

• Units:

  • Butter per pound (4 sticks)

  • Eggs per dozen

  • Flour per pound (assuming a standard 5‑lb bag)

  • Sugar per pound

  • Brown sugar per pound (based on a 2‑lb bag)

  • Chocolate chips per 12 oz bag

  • Vanilla extract per ounce

• Data sources:

  • Publicly available average price data (national‑level)

  • Typical U.S. package sizes

  • A standard “one‑batch” cookie recipe (about 24 cookies) that combines these ingredients in reasonable amounts

This is deliberately a simple, kitchen‑table index, not a lab experiment. It’s meant to be directionally honest and emotionally useful, not the final word in economic modeling.

Actual prices will vary depending on:

• your location

• store and brand

• whether you’re a sale‑stalker, bulk buyer, or last‑minute runner

That’s why the chart on this page is best read as a trend story — a visual, seasonal way to understand the broader food inflation we’ve all felt.

What to do with this (besides get Clucking mad at eggs)

If this got you thinking about your own grocery bill, here are a few next steps:

• Use the chart as a conversation starter – with friends, family, or your own audience if you share your baking online.

• Plan your holiday baking with intention – pick the cookies that feel worth the splurge.

• Save or pin this page – I’ll aim to update the Christmas Cookie Inflation Index annually so we can see how things change over time.

And if you’d like:

Join the Stripes & Willows email list to get cozy, seasonal kitchen notes, plus updates when next year’s Christmas Cookie Inflation Index comes out.